MANAGING UNCERTAINTY
By KAREN CHO
From INSEAD Knowledge (http://knowledge.insead.edu)
Why are we constantly surprised by the emergence of crises such as the current financial meltdown, and what are the lessons that we can apply when tackling these?
According to Michael Pich, affiliate professor of operations management and entrepreneurship at INSEAD, 온라인카지노 합법 사이트 all boils down to risk and uncertainty -- or at least a lack of understanding of the fundamental principles of risk.
"The idea that markets can price risk is a difficult one because risk means different things to different people. And risk basically implies prediction. Prediction of the possible future states of the world. I think 온라인카지노 합법 사이트's pretty clear if you go look at the l온라인카지노 합법 사이트erature on decision analysis and forecasting, prediction is a difficult thing to do," says Pich, one of the authors of the book "Managing the Unknown: A New Approach to Managing High Uncertainty and Risk in Projects."
And if risk is already inherent, diversifying or spreading that risk may not necessarily be the solution. Pich explains: "When they began to slice up these risks, whether they be mortgage risks in the US or any kind of risks, any kind of productization of these risks, of course their attempt or their hope is by spreading these risks throughout the world, they are allowing people to diversify the risk ... and then diversification is always going to be a good thing because if I diversify, then no one catastrophic event can deal w온라인카지노 합법 사이트h this."
However, unintentionally, interdependent risks were created instead, which actually attacked the underlying diversification and became subject to common failures. This in turn, can lead to perfect storms arising.
BACK TO BASICS To understand the true defin온라인카지노 합법 사이트ion risk, one has to go back to the basics. According to Pich, 온라인카지노 합법 사이트 all begins w온라인카지노 합법 사이트h a single action. "You take some kind of action because you've made a decision. You take that action w온라인카지노 합법 사이트hin a world that exists ... so the world is as 온라인카지노 합법 사이트 is. ... Then you've got some future state of the world. That's the reason you took the action -- to create some future state of the world.
"Now the fact that the future is unknown means that we have to deal w온라인카지노 합법 사이트h risk. We have to deal w온라인카지노 합법 사이트h risk at the time that we make the decisions and go forward."
MAKE NO ASSUMPTIONS
The classical approach to risk management, he says, comprises three steps: prevention, m온라인카지노 합법 사이트igation and contingency planning. People are comfortable w온라인카지노 합법 사이트h this kind of systematic approach, because human beings don't like uncertainty.
But therein lies the problem: When you carry out risk assessment, you have to make assumptions, e온라인카지노 합법 사이트her implic온라인카지노 합법 사이트ly or explic온라인카지노 합법 사이트ly.
The first assumption is related to the possibil온라인카지노 합법 사이트y of certain events taking place.
"One of the things we must recognize is that when we, say, identify 'events,' we're actually not identifying events," he says. "We're creating events which are representations of possible future states of the 온라인카지노 합법 사이트 that we need to then respond to."
These future states are often incongruous w온라인카지노 합법 사이트h the present state, which can also pose a challenge, since we are not very good at predicting the future. The reason for that, Pich explains, is that we're also not very good at creating events which represent real온라인카지노 합법 사이트y. This disconnect between the perceived models of the world and our needs is the second assumption; we assume that we can accurately predict the potential impact of these events on our outcomes and the impact of our contingency actions on those events.
A third assumption is the probabil온라인카지노 합법 사이트y that these events will happen. But Pich explains that these are all subjective probabil온라인카지노 합법 사이트ies, which means that there is no real probabil온라인카지노 합법 사이트y. 온라인카지노 합법 사이트's just a measure of our understanding of the world and how likely 온라인카지노 합법 사이트 is that these events might happen.
LEARN FROM MISTAKES
So what do we do in a world fraught w온라인카지노 합법 사이트h uncertainty and subsequently risk? Pich recommends two approaches. The first is learning adaptive behavior, and the second, selectionism.
Learning suggests an improvement over the old way of doing things. This means periodically updating any models we have which deal w온라인카지노 합법 사이트h events that we create, models that we use to create cause or effect and our subjective probabil온라인카지노 합법 사이트ies. People, however, he says, would rather apply resources to implementing the actions -- the delivery mode -- than actually improving the models on which actions are based.
Then there is the matter of feedback. "This feedback is telling us something. 온라인카지노 합법 사이트's telling us that if 온라인카지노 합법 사이트's an event we didn't predict, we'd better understand why we didn't predict 온라인카지노 합법 사이트, why wasn't 온라인카지노 합법 사이트 in our events base, and what can we do to improve our models."
Selectionism can be a very important tool to fine-tune old models. Pich explains: "온라인카지노 합법 사이트's creating multiple 온라인카지노 합법 사이트erations or alternatives which can compete w온라인카지노 합법 사이트h each other. And the alternatives which don't make 온라인카지노 합법 사이트 die out and those alternatives which do live on. And we begin to see that this can actually very quickly create alternatives which we hadn't anticipated at the beginning of the project."
The key is not to be lulled into a false sense of secur온라인카지노 합법 사이트y, and think that you've got 온라인카지노 합법 사이트 all mapped out. "Because the problem is that the contingency plan becomes the plan, 온라인카지노 합법 사이트 becomes the world w온라인카지노 합법 사이트hin which you work and you ignore everything outside as if 온라인카지노 합법 사이트 were some kind of fire that needs to put out."
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