Managing 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 in the New World
w온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88hRobert S. Kaplan, Anette Mikes, Robert Simons, Peter Tufano, and Michael Hofmann. Moderated by HBR senior ed온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88or David Champion.
|
Has the development of tools for assessing 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 lulled people into believing 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 is now easier to control? When are 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88-return trade-offs prohibitively dangerous? How should managers prepare for Black Swan events? What makes a good CRO?
|
Five experts discuss the future of enterprise 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 management.
David Champion: How predictable was the financial meltdown of 2008–2009? Was 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 a Black Swan event or, rather, analogous to the next big California earthquake—something you know will happen though you don’t know when?
Peter Tufano:Many of the elements of the crisis were being talked about long before it happened. Analysts had been questioning the sustainability of the subprime business well before the meltdown. Macroeconomists had been worrying about the U.S. current account deficit. I myself had been looking at obviously unsustainable household saving rates and debt levels. Other people were writing about the imperfections of ratings models. What we didn’t see was how the elements were interacting. And that meant we were blind to the 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 that the whole system would break down.
Michael Hofmann:I agree. The crash was essentially the bursting of a classic cred온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 bubble. The interesting part was what the bursting revealed, which was just how concentrated the financial system had become. 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 also highlighted a classic behavioral bias. The main features of the financial system had been in place for some 25 years, and we had gotten pretty comfortable w온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88h the way things were. We were all relying on data from this largely stable period. 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88’s very hard in these s온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88uations to stand up and prophesy disaster.
Robert Simons:There has certainly been a strong pattern of 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88-taking behavior in the financial sector, and in my view that is because we had three enabling conditions in place at once. First, the innovations in financial engineering that were developed over the past decade created an opportunity to take on more 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 through new products. This is not new, of course. Breakthroughs in transportation, telecommunications, and computing all created similar opportunities for 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 taking. Second, you need motivation in the form of performance pressure, and the financial markets supplied this in spades. There’s been intense pressure on executives to deliver sales growth, a larger market share, and ever-rising stock prices. But again, nothing in the past few years would suggest that this pressure had suddenly intensified. What was new was the third ingredient, which I call rationalization—the belief that a particular behavior is economically and morally justifiable. The shareholder value principle—that social welfare is somehow best served if managers focus exclusively on delivering the maximum value to stock owners—was one such rationalization. And rationalizations like that made it much easier for managers everywhere to take on 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 that they would otherwise have avoided. 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 became the rule rather than the exception, which explains the scale of the crisis.
As you point out, financial innovation created the opportunity. But it also gave us tools for assessing 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88, and some people argue that this “scientification” of 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 made it easier for people to believe they could control it. Any thoughts?
Hofmann:There’s often a profound misunderstanding about what financial models can do. Any business decision is about capturing some reward. To capture it, you take certain 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88s. So the first questions for a 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 person are: What’s the reward we are trying to capture? Do we really understand the 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 we are taking? Is it an acceptable 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88? If so, the next question is whether the reward is high enough. This is where modeling comes in. But before you start to model the 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88, you have to think about whether you understand the nature of it.
Anette Mikes:I second that. Models are not decision makers; people are. So the real issue is the culture that you have around modeling. I’ve found that, in extremis, there are two types of 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 managers. One type I call quantitative enthusiasts. They believe that there are basically just two kinds of 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88s: the ones we have already modeled successfully and the ones we haven’t. Some banks were convinced that you could use models to decide whether to lend to a particular company. You would plug in data, and the model would come out with a credit grade. If you step back a bit, you realize that you have to make some heroic assumptions to be able to do this. The weakness of the quantitative enthusiast culture is that managers give too much attention to the output and too little to the assumptions that went into the model. The other type of 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 managers I call quantitative skeptics—people who overemphasize the weaknesses of 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 models. They consider the major 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88s to be outside the quantifiable-온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 universe, but they can easily lose sight of aggregate 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 effects. Incidentally, the crisis has brought both camps closer to a healthy skepticism. Quantitative enthusiasts have become more skeptical and are reclaiming the lost science of decision making by expert judgment. Quantitative skeptics are getting more comfortable with 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 analytics as they implement strong validation controls around 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 models.
So far we’ve been talking about the 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 sector. Aren’t the challenges that industrial companies face very different?
Hofmann:Yes and no. Koch Industries and its subsidiaries have some of the same financial 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88s, though obviously to a lesser degree than a bank would have. For example, we grant credit to our customers. We have a treasury group that deals with liquidity management; we manage large investment portfolios; and we have trading operations. But we also deal with significant operational 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88s—from logistics and massive industrial plants. Those operational 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88s are different from and much greater in scale than the ones that a financial services group is concerned with, which are mainly around documentation, data processing, and so forth.
Robert S. Kaplan:Industrial companies definitely have strategic 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88s, which may be even more difficult to measure and manage than financial 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88s. Those companies make big investments in their physical and intangible assets, which become worthless if customers cease to value the products and services produced from them. But since we don’t mark physical assets to realizable values or even recognize a company’s intangible assets, the impairment plays out over longer periods of time. General Motors took about 25 years to realize the 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88s it had assumed by generating profits only from large vehicles. When energy prices doubled, it did not have profitable fuel-efficient cars available for sale to customers, and the company failed.
15,000개의 아티클을 제대로 즐기는 방법
가입하면, 한 달 무료!
걱정마세요. 언제든 해지 가능합니다.
인기기사
회원 가입만 해도, 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 월정액 서비스 첫 달 무료!
15,000여 건의 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니88 콘텐츠를무제한으로 이용하세요.