Make Better 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s
by Thomas H. Davenport
In recent years 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 makers in both the public and private sectors have made an astounding number of poor calls. For example, the 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s to invade Iraq, not to comply with global warming treaties, to ignore Darfur, are all likely to be recorded as injudicious in history books. And how about the 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s to invest in and securitize subprime mortgage loans, or to hedge risk with credit default swaps? Those were spread across a number of companies, but single organizations, too, made bad 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s. Tenneco, once a large conglomerate, chose poorly when buying businesses and now consists of only one auto parts business. General Motors made terrible 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s about which cars to bring to market. Time Warner erred in buying AOL, and Yahoo in deciding not to sell itself to Microsoft.
Why this 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳-making disorder? First, because 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s have generally been viewed as the prerogative of individuals—usually senior executives. The process employed, the information used, the logic relied on, have been left up to them, in something of a black box. Information goes in, 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s come out—and who knows what happens in between? Second, unlike other business processes, 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 making has rarely been the focus of systematic analysis inside the firm. Very few organizations have “reengineered”their 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s. Yet there are just as many opportunities to improve 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 making as to improve any other process.
Useful insights have been available for a long time. For example, academics defined “groupthink,” the forced manufacture of consent, more than half a century ago—yet it still bedevils 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 makers from the White House to company boardrooms. In the sixteenth century the Catholic Church established the devil’s advocate to criticize canonization 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s—yet few organizations today formalize the advocacy of 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 alternatives. Recent popular business books address a host of 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳-making alternatives (see “Selected Reading”).
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Selected Reading
Blinkby Malcolm Gladwell, is a paean to intuitive 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 making.
The Wisdom of Crowdsby James Surowiecki, argues for large-group participation in 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s.
How We Decideby Jonah Lehrer, addresses the psychobiology of 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 making and the limits of rationality.
Predictably Irrationalby Dan Ariely, considers behavioral economics and its implications for 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 making.
Nudgeby Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein, is influencing discussions about behavior-oriented policy in Washington, DC.
Two books on analytical and automated 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 making:
Competing on Analyticsby Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris.
Super Crunchersby Ian Ayres.
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However, although businesspeople are clearly buying and reading these books, few companies have actually adopted their recommendations. The consequences of this inattention are becoming ever more severe. It is time to take 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 making out of the realm of the purely individual and idiosyncratic; organizations must help their managers employ better 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳-making processes. Better processes won’t guarantee better 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s, of course, but they can make them more likely.
A Framework for Improving 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s
Focusing on 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s doesn’t necessarily require a strict focus on the mental processes of managers. (Though, admittedly, the black box deserves some unpacking.) It can mean examining the accessible components of 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 making—which 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s need to be made, what information is supplied, key roles in the process, and so forth. Smart organizations make multifaceted interventions—addressing technology, information, organizational structure, methods, and personnel. They can improve 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 making in four steps:
1. Identification.
Managers should begin by listing the 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s that must be made and deciding which are most important—for example, “the top 10 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s required to execute our strategy” or “the top 10 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s that have to go well if we are to meet our financial goals.” Some 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s will be rare and highly strategic (“What acquisitions will allow us to gain the necessary market share?”) while others will be frequent and on the front lines (“How should we decide how much to pay on claims?”). Without some prioritization, all 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s will be treated as equal—which probably means that the important ones won’t be analyzed with sufficient care.
2. Inventory.
In addition to identifying key 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s, you should assess the factors that go into each of them. Who plays what role in the 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳? How often does it occur? What information is available to support it? How well is the 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 typically made? Such an examination helps an organization understand which 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s need improvement and what processes might make them more effective, while establishing a common language for discussing 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 making.
3. Intervention.
Having narrowed down your list of 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s and examined what’s involved in making each, you can design the roles, processes, systems, and behaviors your organization should be using to make them. The key to effective 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 interventions is a broad, inclusive approach that considers all methods of improvement and addresses all aspects of the 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 process—including execution of the 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳, which is often overlooked.
4. Institutionalization.
Organizations need to give managers the tools and assistance to “decide how to decide” on an ongoing basis. At Air Products and Chemicals, for example, managers are trained to determine whether a particular 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 should be made unilaterally by one manager, unilaterally after consultation with a group, by a group through a majority vote, or by group consensus. In addition, they determine who will be responsible for making the 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳, who will be held accountable for results, and who needs to be consulted or informed.
Companies that are serious about institutionalizing better 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 making often enlist 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 experts to work with executives on improving the process. Chevron, for example, has a 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳-analysis group whose members facilitate 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳-framing workshops; coordinate data gathering for analysis; build and refine economic and analytical models; help project managers and 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 makers interpret analyses; point out when additional information and analysis would improve a 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳; conduct an assessment of 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 quality; and coach 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 makers. The group has trained more than 2,500 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 makers in two-day workshops and has certified 10,000 through an online training module. At Chevron all major capital projects (which are common at large oil companies) have the benefit of systematic 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 analysis.
An organization that has adopted these four steps should also assess the quality of 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s after the fact. The assessment should address not only actual business results—which can involve both politics and luck—but also the 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳-making process and whatever information the manager relied on. Chevron regularly performs “lookbacks” on major 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s, and assesses not only outcomes but also how the 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 might have employed a better process or addressed uncertainty better.
Let’s look at how two companies have improved their 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳 making.
Better New-Product 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s at ETS
The Educational Testing Service develops and administers such widely recognized tests as the SAT, the GRE, the TOEFL, and the AP. In 2007 Kurt Landgraf, ETS’s CEO, concluded that the organization needed to accelerate and improve 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳s about new products and services if it was to continue competing effectively. ETS had previously employed a stage-gate approval process for new offerings, but the organization’s matrixed structure and diffuse 온라인카지노 커뮤니티 유니벳-making responsibility made the process ineffective.
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